Is Gov. Bill Richardson flip-flopping on Iraq?
As his presidential campaign continues to stagnate and may actually be losing ground in polls, Richardson is being accused by another Democratic presidential hopeful of doing just that.
In comments published Tuesday in the Concord Monitor, Richardson campaign spokesman Tom Reynolds de-emphasized the assertion Richardson has made the focus of his campaign in recent weeks that a complete American troop withdrawal from Iraq would take somewhere between six and eight months.
“The timeline is less important than the end goal and the end result of withdrawing all troops from Iraq and leaving no forces behind,” Reynolds told the newspaper. “You cannot truly end the war and leave residual troops behind.”
The comments come days after the Richardson campaign’s co-chair in South Carolina quit because, he said, Richardson’s timeline is not achievable. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd also say Richardson’s plan is unrealistic, and several have said it’s irresponsible and disingenuous.
Richardson has gradually shifted focus in recent weeks from his own six-month timeline to the fact that those candidates won’t promise to have troops out of Iraq by 2013. In a policy speech delivered Thursday, Richardson said he “expected more – much more – from my fellow Democrats. … they are wrong. Their plans simply will not end this war.”
Dodd struck back on Tuesday, in response to the comments made to the Monitor, accusing Richardson in a news release of flip-flopping on Iraq. The release stated that, months ago, Richardson supported a plan similar to that proposed by the other candidates. Then he began promoting the six-month timeline and attacking the others. Now he appears to be backing away, the release states.
“The only thing Bill Richardson has been consistent about is his inconsistency,” Dodd communications Director Hari Sevugan said in the release. “It’s going to take clarity to stand up to this president and end this war – not equivocation and hedging.”
The release also states that Richardson has been inconsistent on how many troops he would leave in Iraq. He’s currently promoting “zero” troops, but he said as recently as July that he would leave as many as several thousand in Iraq to protect the U.S. embassy and other diplomatic interests.
Richardson’s defense
Are those flip-flops? In an interview, Reynolds said they aren’t.
“From the beginning, Gov. Richardson has had the clearest plan,” he said.
Richardson’s plan has always been to leave no residual troops in Iraq, but to leave a Marine detachment to guard the embassy, Reynolds said. He said the detachment is not a continuation of troop occupation because such detachments guard every American embassy in the world.
The plan has always included withdrawing all troops in six to eight months, Reynolds said, “but if conditions on the ground dictate, it might take a little longer.”
“I think Dodd’s attack is a desperate attempt because of his sagging poll numbers,” Reynolds said.
I looked at a number of Richardson’s previous statements and, since he first formulated his Iraq plan several months ago, he has remained fairly consistent on the points Reynolds made. But it’s true that, before that plan was formulated, Richardson did appear, at one point, to endorse a plan similar to that being proposed by the other candidates.
In addition, though the plan has remained consistent since mid-summer, different points have been emphasized. Though Reynolds now says the timeline isn’t the most important point in the plan, Richardson emphasized it for weeks as the primary difference between his plan and those of the other candidates.
The Richardson campaign has not said until the last few days that his withdrawal timeline of six to eight months was flexible, at least in any statement I’ve found. The reality is that Dodd’s attack is spin, but so is Richardson’s defense.
Why the shift?
So why has the focus within Richardson’s plan shifted? Probably for two reasons: Richardson’s timeline has been repeatedly criticized as unrealistic and disingenuous, and the other candidates gave him a huge opening during the last debate when they would not commit to withdrawing all troops by the end of their first term if elected.
Suddenly, Richardson didn’t have to argue about whether a withdrawal would take six months or 18 months. He could point out that his plan would result in a full withdrawal years before the plans of the others.
So Richardson shifted focus to that. It’s good strategy.
The poll numbers
However, the shift does open Richardson up to further attacks like Dodd’s, and it doesn’t appear to be helping Richardson in the polls. Recent polls in Iowa and New Hampshire indicate that weeks of stagnation in Richardson’s poll numbers may actually be turning into a slow decline.
New polls in Nevada and Arizona also indicate a possible decline. The drop in polls in all four states are within the margin of error, so it’s difficult to say for certain that there has been a drop in Richardson’s support, but the polls in four states may indicate a trend.
The new Nevada poll, conducted by American Research Group, has Richardson at 5 percent – down from 6 percent in the company’s June poll. Though Obama and Edwards have also lost ground, Clinton has climbed in that time from 40 percent to 51 percent in the newest poll, and Richardson remains solidly in fourth place.
The new poll, conducted Friday through Tuesday, surveyed 600 likely Democratic caucus-goers and has a margin of error of 4 percent.
The new Arizona poll is even worse news for Richardson. After being at 9 percent and one point ahead of Edwards in the company’s July poll, Richardson has fallen to 7 percent while Edwards has climbed to 16 percent. Richardson is in fourth place and only three points ahead of Biden in the new poll, which was conducted the same day and has the same margin of error as the Nevada poll.
Reynolds said the campaign isn’t concerned by the poll numbers, pointing out that John Kerry and Edwards were in third and fourth place, respectively, in Iowa at this point in 2003. They ended up finishing first and second.
“Polls are going to fluctuate,” Reynolds said. “The only poll that matters to us is caucus night.”
Is Gov. Bill Richardson flip-flopping on