Analysis: Bet on Richardson replacing Pete

By Jose Z. Garcia

Before discussing the political fallout, let me assert that Pete Domenici ranks among the top two senators in New Mexico history. His contributions in reforming the Senate budget process were historic, and if Congress squandered a chance to be fiscally responsible in the last few years, it was not because of him.

At the peak of his power his moderate, bipartisan approach to policy, abandoned years ago by Senate leaders in favor of the Gotcha Game, helped produce legislation of which people were actually proud. His work ethic on behalf of New Mexicans is legendary, and there is no one in the state who has not benefited from this work. His modest, unassuming character was rare among first-tier politicians, and he knew how to listen well.

Like most New Mexicans, I have positive recollections in my very infrequent business with Pete: After a trip to El Salvador in the early 1980s, for example, worried that human rights violations were getting out of hand, I asked him for help. Six weeks later, the death-squad rates were down to nearly zero, the product of a few quiet conversations Pete had with the people who could make things happen.

May the future bless you, Pete, and before we say goodbye: Thank you!

The bottom line

OK: If you have to place a bet on the replacement, put money on Bill Richardson becoming the next senator from New Mexico. If I’m wrong, and he doesn’t run for it, though, all bets are off.

The Republican equation

This is the easy part: 10-1 in favor of Heather Wilson emerging as the Republican candidate. She has been groomed as the heir-apparent for a long time and she learned from Pete to listen to her constituents rather than party people in Washington.

Steve Pearce doesn’t have a realistic chance. His voting record is to too tied to George Bush and the ultra-violet right wing of the party, and 2008 will not be a good year to be tied to Bush, at least not in Greater Albuquerque (40 percent of the vote) or the Hispanic north (about 15 percent of the vote). So make the bet if someone offers. A 10 percent return is not bad, given your options in the current financial markets after the housing bust.

This will free up the Albuquerque congressional seat, and the odds-on favorite has to be Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, a popular Republican who could actually win the seat in November against potential opponents (see below).

The Democratic equation

Tom Udall has announced he would not get into the Senate race (does he sense that Richardson is going to get in?) to replace Pete. The prospects of Richardson getting into the race are enough to dissuade many potential candidates from even hinting about it, although Diane Denish already has, perhaps prematurely, as has Marty Chávez. Don’t expect many candidates to commit to running until you get a Shermanesque statement from Uncle Bill, and don’t hold your breath (see below) for that to come. Bottom line: Assume Richardson will run; keep assuming this until at least three days after the filing date on Feb. 12.

Aside from predicting who will run to replace Pete among the Democrats, things are iffy in the empty slots that might emerge. If Pearce runs for the Senate seat this would open up his congressional seat to a host of potential candidates. But since Pearce appears to be virtually un-electable in a statewide race, it is unlikely he will run against Heather for the Senate seat. For that reason, it doesn’t make sense to place odds on possibilities within this remote contingency.

If Pearce were to vacate his House seat, state Rep. Joseph Cervantes would almost certainly waste no time getting into the race on the Democratic side, betting that he could overtake the announced candidates, Al Kissling and Bill McCamley. On the Republican side, Ed Tinsley, who lost to Pearce in the June 2002 primary for that seat, might give it a try, as might a dark-horse candidate such as Sen. Rod Adair or Roswell, who ran for lieutenant governor in 2002.

The relative scarcity of highly identifiable potential candidates to run for this congressional seat is less a statement about the talent of southern politicians as it is a commentary on the lack of a unified media market shared by most voters in the district. News markets are divided sharply between east and west. Voters on one end seldom read about or see politicians on the opposite side.

Further, it has been a long time since someone from the south has dominated the legislature. Sen. Aubrey Dunn’s legendary control of senate finances ended a quarter of a century ago, and even more time has passed since the south had a speaker of the House.

In Albuquerque, with Wilson going to the Senate race, the default choice for the Democrats has got to be Chávez. So far he has been running for governor in the 2010 election, but given his dismal performance as a candidate for governor in 1998, and the prospects of running against incumbent Denish (yes, she will be governor if Bill replaces Pete), the mayor of Albuquerque could escape this unpleasant fate should he opt to run for Heather’s position. The only person who could whup Chávez would be former Attorney General Patsy Madrid, who narrowly lost to Wilson last year, should she choose to run again.

In politics you rarely get a second chance: This could be it for Madrid.

The case for Richardson

Richardson, of course, has denied having any plans to run for Pete’s seat. Financial contributors to his presidential bid would frown on any sudden, opportunistic jumping ship to the Senate race with their money (campaign finance laws permit this with no penalties), at least until his presidential prospects dwindle further.

But what are his options? If he stays the course of his presidential run, out of the running for Pete’s seat, he will be slogging in the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire while the legislature is convening in Santa Fe, thus losing his grip on the course of events in New Mexico. And he will almost certainly end up in a respectable column of also-rans, but highly unlikely to challenge either Obama or Clinton in any serious way.

This would bring him back to New Mexico in the late winter or early spring no longer the center of attention while others vie for Domenici’s and Wilson’s seats. Denish will likely have proven herself as a capable stand-in for the governor, and people will already be thinking of her as Madam Governor, the face of the future.

True, Richardson could campaign hard in the fall for the presidential nominee, hoping for a good assignment, and might end up on the ticket as vice president. But as a candidate for the U.S. Senate, there are no shades of lame-duckism in the air. He remains in control of events, and his chances of the VP slot or a post-election cabinet position are enhanced. You are less likely to be passed over for VP when you have a good chance of sitting in the U.S. Senate the next year than when you are a lame-duck governor.

And if offered a job as secretary of state, you can weigh that against the option of remaining a U.S. senator, thank you Madam President. Yes, if you have to bet, put your money on Richardson – three to two favorite – to be junior senator from New Mexico in January 2009.

Garcia has taught government and politics at New Mexico State University for 30 years. He has been active in Democratic Party politics in Doña Ana County for many years. By way of disclosure, he was appointed by Richardson to the N.M. Border Authority and served on it through the end of 2006, and he has also worked on past Cervantes campaigns as his treasurer.