Guv touts strong fundraising, still stagnant in polls

Gov. Bill Richardson says he will raise more than $6 million in the third quarter of 2007, even as his campaign has stagnated in the polls.

In an interview with the Associated Press, the governor said he is making a “mad dash” at the end of the fundraising quarter that ends Sept. 30 and will raise between $6 million and $7 million – about what he raised in each of the first two quarters of the year.

A look at his schedule reveals the shift from campaigning to fundraising. Though Richardson has spent much of the quarter in Iowa and New Hampshire at campaign events, he plans in the next nine days only one-day trips to each of those states to attend debates. He’ll spend the rest of the time at fundraisers in Washington, D.C., New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania.

With the exception of Pennsylvania, Richardson is tapping into his bases in the next few days. He has held a number of fundraisers in each of the other states, with good reason: Richardson has spent much of his adult life living and working in Washington and New Mexico, but he spent his teen and college years and got his political start in Massachusetts, and he spent time in New York at U.N. ambassador.

Going back to those states to raise more money could be a sign that Richardson’s financial base isn’t growing. But the estimate Richardson gave the Associated Press, assuming it comes true, would still be impressive.

Another strong fundraising quarter is critical to Richardson’s campaign, which has stagnated in polls in recent weeks. Raising as much money before Sept. 30 as he has in the previous two quarters might indicate that Richardson’s supporters aren’t deterred by his stagnating poll numbers and, though he’s no longer surging in the polls, his base isn’t eroding.

That would mean he still has a chance to make a run before voters head to the polls in December or January.

Little change in the polls

A number of new polls continue to indicate that Richardson is resting comfortably in the netherworld between the first a and second tier of Democratic presidential candidates. A new national poll released this week by American Research Group has Richardson at 5 percent, down from 7 percent in the group’s August poll. Other national surveys released this week include an Associated Press poll that has him at 4 percent, a FOX News poll that has him at 1 percent, a Reuters/Zogby poll that has him at 3 percent and a Rasmussen Reports poll that has him at 7 percent.

All were conducted in the last 10 days. Richardson’s average in recent national polls, according to Real Clear Politics, is 3.6 percent. It’s been at between 3 and 4 percent for weeks.

A number of state polls have also been conducted in the last 10 days. Two new polls of New Hampshire, one conducted by Rasmussen Reports and the other conducted by Franklin Pierce, both place Richardson at 11 percent in that state. The first poll has John Edwards at 14 percent and the second has him at 12 percent, so there’s not much change there. Edwards has been slightly ahead of Richardson for weeks.

Two new polls conducted by Strategic Vision place Richardson at 6 percent in Ohio and 7 percent in Wisconsin. And two additional polls conducted by American Research Group place Richardson at 5 percent in Colorado and 3 percent in Florida.

Clinton will be hard to catch

The closer we get to the election, the higher frontrunner Hillary Clinton is climbing in the polls. Richardson is in a difficult position: He has to beat either Barack Obama or Edwards in Iowa to have a shot at the nomination. At this rate, he’s not on track to do that. After nearly catching Obama at the beginning of August, the governor’s poll numbers haven’t changed while Obama has climbed. Obama now has about twice the support of Richardson.