Gov. Bill Richardson continues to climb in polls in Nevada and has the potential to pass John Edwards and Barack Obama in that state in the coming months.
The new Research 2000 poll, released today, has Hillary Clinton at 33 percent, Obama at 19 percent, Edwards at 15 percent, Richardson at 11 percent and Al Gore, who isn’t in the race, at 8 percent. No other candidate was above the margin of error of 5 percent in the poll, which surveyed 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers between Tuesday and Thursday.
For Richardson, that’s a nine-point gain since the group’s last poll was conducted in March. Clinton has gained one point since March, Obama has fallen one point and Edwards has climbed four points. Nine percent are undecided in the new poll, down from 18 percent in March.
The poll is the first in Nevada since June. The last poll, conducted June 20-22 by Mason-Dixon, had Clinton at 39 percent, Obama at 17 percent, Edwards at 12 percent and Richardson at 7 percent.
Earlier this week, Edwards pulled a number of staffers out of Nevada to concentrate on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In response, Richardson hired seven new staffers in Nevada.
In addition, only Richardson and Joe Biden, who is at 2 percent in the new poll, have committed to attend a candidate forum next week at the University of Nevada-Reno. Richardson appears to be paying more attention to Nevada than any other candidate. Edwards’ reduction in staff there almost ensures that Richardson will climb to third place in the coming weeks. He’s also within striking distance of Obama.
The only potential negative for Richardson’s campaign in Nevada was the resignation on Thursday of a top staffer who is wanted on felony charges in California, but the campaign responded immediately by getting rid of the staffer. The positive of the campaign’s response should offset any negative press about the staffer.
Richardson has to keep climbing in Nevada. His strategy seems to be a showing of at least third place in Iowa and third or second in New Hampshire, propelling him to a win in Nevada that would propel him to a win in California and other Western states on Feb. 5, the day the majority of the nation’s electorate will vote in primaries.
With the shift made by the Edwards’ campaign this week, the dynamic that is shaping up in the Democratic primary is fascinating. Clinton is sitting pretty on a ton of cash and a sizable lead in national polls, but she’s in a tough fight with Edwards and Obama in Iowa that could change everything. Obama also has a ton of cash, is second in national polls and, with the exception of Iowa, second in most early primary states, so he’s also well-poised.
But so are Edwards and Richardson. While Richardson’s three-state strategy could propel him to wins in Western states, Edward’s three-state strategy could propel him to wins in the East and South. And a win or second-place showing by Edwards in Iowa could knock Obama out of the race.
As long as Edwards stays on Clinton’s heels in Iowa, Richardson remains solidly in fourth place, but he’s exactly where his campaign plan thinks he should be at this point.
Gov. Bill Richardson continues to climb in polls in