New poll has guv way behind Big Three in Iowa

A new poll of likely Democratic voters in Iowa has the three frontrunners in the race statistically tied and Gov. Bill Richardson a distant fourth.

That’s bad news for the governor, who earlier this week was nearly tied with Barack Obama for third place in another poll in that state.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll, released today, has Obama leading with 27 percent, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards tied at 26 percent and Richardson with 11 percent. The survey of 500 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa was conducted July 26-31 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

An American Research Group poll released Wednesday had Clinton with 30 percent, Edwards with 21 percent, Obama with 15 percent and Richardson with 13 percent. It was conducted at the same time as the poll released today and had a similar margin of error.

So, clearly, at least one of these polls is wrong. The American Research Group poll is more in line with other recent polls, and Obama has been in third place in just about every previous poll in Iowa. The newest poll’s results are shocking and great news for his campaign if they’re accurate, but what would have caused such a spike in support for Obama?

We’ll see which poll is more accurate as time goes on and other polls are conducted.