Gov. Bill Richardson is within two points of Barack Obama in the newest independent poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers.
The news is huge for a candidate who recently moved ahead of John Edwards and into third place in New Hampshire in one poll and, for several weeks, has been gaining ground on the third-place Obama in polls in Iowa.
It also comes as Richardson’s campaign began airing another clever television advertisement in Iowa on Tuesday.
But the news isn’t all good for Richardson supporters. Another new poll shows Edwards ahead of Richardson in New Hampshire and Richardson’s support at a dismal 2 percent in South Carolina and New York.
The new American Research Group poll of Iowa, released today, has Hillary Clinton in the lead with 30 percent of the vote, Edwards in second with 21 percent, Obama in third with 15 percent and Richardson in fourth with 13 percent. No other candidate had more than 3 percent, and 15 percent were undecided.
The poll, conducted Thursday-Monday, surveyed 600 likely Democratic caucus goers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
A couple of other interesting facts: Clinton and Edwards both fell between the group’s June survey and this newest poll – Clinton by 2 percent and Edwards by 8 percent. Obama gained 2 percent and Richardson gained 8 percent, so the governor is currently experiencing the most positive movement in Iowa.
A problem for both Obama and Richardson, however, is revealed when the support of registered Democrats is separated from that of independents who said they are likely to vote in the Democratic caucuses. It’s not uncommon for independents to register as Democrats or Republicans before elections so they can participate in primaries and caucuses.
Among Democrats, who represented 79 percent of those surveyed, Clinton’s support was 33 percent, Edwards’ was 24 percent, Obama’s was 13 percent and Richardson’s was 10 percent. Among independents, who made up 21 percent of those surveyed, Richardson has the most support – 25 percent – while Obama had 21 percent, Clinton had 18 percent and Edwards had 8 percent.
But people who are already Democrats are more likely to vote in the caucuses than those who are independent but say they’ll participate.
Regardless, the Richardson campaign sent out a news release today touting the new poll and one released last week that has Richardson in third place in Arizona and about which I have already written.
“Our campaign continues to gain support. Gov. Richardson is working tirelessly to advance his plan to get all of our troops out of Iraq, leaving no residual forces,” Campaign Manager Dave Contarino said. “He has the strongest energy plan of any candidate in the race. And he has the experience to turn plans into realities. Americans are responding.”
Richardson releases another clever TV ad
I’ve been writing for months about the clever television ads Richardson’s campaign has released – self-deprecating when the goal is to make Richardson seem approachable and highlight his experience, somber when talking about Iraq and care for soldiers. Now he has a new ad airing in Iowa about his energy plan, and it’s equally well-done.
“I’m Bill Richardson, and on clean energy, a 30-second TV ad isn’t enough time,” Richardson says at the beginning of the ad. “But my Web site can show you why the Sierra club called my plan ‘much more aggressive.’”
He briefly highlights his plan to lower demand for oil by 50 percent in 12 years, raise mileage standards to 50 mpg and reduce greenhouse gases by 80 percent by 2040.
“I approved this message because it won’t be easy, but we’ve relied on foreign oil and paid too much for gas long enough,” Richardson concludes.
The ad begins with Richardson standing on a hillside, but that video quickly fades into a larger view of Richardson’s campaign Web site, and as he runs through the three points from his energy plan, the screen shifts to a portion of his Web site that highlights each point.
The ad concludes by providing Richardson’s campaign Web address, richardsonforpresident.com. You can watch the ad at the end of this posting and learn more about it by clicking here.
It’s short, but grabs attention and immediately draws interested, potential voters to Richardson’s Web site. It’s presented in a way that’s technologically savvy and interesting. Score another point for Richardson’s marketing team.
“As Iowans learn about Governor Richardson’s plans for clean energy and his record as governor of New Mexico and secretary of energy, we are confident we will continue our steady, upward climb,” Contarino said. “The latest polls show our campaign continuing to gain support in Iowa and across the country.”
Some bad news for Richardson
Now for the reality check. Richardson moved ahead of Edwards in New Hampshire in a poll conducted in mid-July. But the newest American Research Group poll of likely Democratic primary voters in that state has Edwards with twice the support of Richardson.
In the new poll, Clinton and Obama are tied with 31 percent, Edwards is at 14 percent and Richardson is at 7 percent. From the group’s June poll, Clinton’s support is down 3 percent, Obama’s is up 6 percent, Edwards’ is up 3 percent and Richardson’s is up 1 percent. The poll was conducted the same dates and has the same margin of error as the Iowa poll.
The poll that had Richardson ahead of Edwards last month was conducted by a university for a local news outlet, and such polls are generally considered more accurate than the American Research Group polls. This is the first poll to show Edwards climbing in New Hampshire in quite awhile, and I’m not going to believe it’s actually happening until there’s a trend.
Richardson continues to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire, so it’s no surprise that new polls in South Carolina and New York find that he’s insignificant in those states.
The bottom line
Obama should be worried. Finishing fourth in Iowa, the first contest in the nation, is difficult to overcome. He’s going to have a hard time catching Edwards and Clinton, but it’s critical that he stay ahead of Richardson.
The new polls should also have Edwards worried. He’s lost 8 percent in Iowa and, though he’s gained a little ground in the newest New Hampshire poll, it only gives him a bit of breathing room. If he can’t regain the lead in Iowa, finishing third or fourth in New Hampshire is going to be difficult to overcome.
Overall, Clinton remains in the best position, but Richardson has the most upward momentum of any candidate in the race. Iowa and New Hampshire have a way of catapulting candidates to victory and, at his current pace, Richardson could be solidly in third place in both Iowa and New Hampshire within a few weeks. Only Clinton, at this point, has the luxury of ignoring Richardson.
Gov. Bill Richardson is within two points of Barack Obama in the newest independent poll of likely