South Carolina Republicans forced a rewrite of the nation’s presidential primary calendar today by moving their primary date up to Jan. 19.
The move triggers a shift in the entire calendar because, by law, New Hampshire must move up its primary and, when that happens, Iowa must move up its caucuses. That throws not only the calendar but campaign strategies into uncertainty.
For Gov. Bill Richardson, it’s bad news. He is moving up in the polls, but slowly, and the more the contests move up, the less time he has to catch the frontrunners.
Before today’s announcement, Democratic contests were set for Jan. 14 in Iowa, Jan. 19 in Nevada, Jan. 22 in New Hampshire and Jan. 29 in South Carolina and Florida. It was Florida that threw a kink into the plan in May by disregarding the wishes of the national Democratic and Republican parties and scheduling its primary for January. A number of other states had moved their contests to Feb. 5, but no other state had breached the line between the first and second month of the year.
Richardson and others pushed last year to add South Carolina and Nevada to the January lineup for Democrats to ensure a more diverse group of voters was heard in the early stages of the primary season. South Carolina Democrats have not announced whether they’ll move up the date of their contest.
On the Republican side, the dates for Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire before today’s announcement were the same as those of the Democratic contests, but the South Carolina GOP had set its primary for Feb. 2.
South Carolina also made clear its intention to be the first in the south to vote, prompting the move when Florida stepped ahead of the South Carolina GOP.
The change forces New Hampshire, by law, to move its primary for Republicans to at least Jan. 12. If no other states move up primaries, New Hampshire could keep its Democratic contest on Jan. 22, but it has traditionally held both together.
Keeping with its tradition of holding the first-in-the nation primary on a Tuesday, New Hampshire could move both contests to Jan. 8.
That would force Iowa, by law, to move its first-in-the-nation caucuses to Dec. 31 of this year or earlier. If New Hampshire decides to hold its contest closer to Jan. 12, that would keep Iowa in the first few days of January.
In case you’re wondering, a primary system allows voters to cast a ballot at a polling place. A caucus system – used in 14 states and the District of Columbia – requires that voters meet and listen to speeches before casting their votes.
One scenario could have New Hampshire’s contest on Jan. 8 and Iowa in mid-December because of the difficulty of getting people out to vote during the holidays. That would put the first contest – and one of two on which Richardson is staking his presidential hopes – a little more than four months away. It took him six months to climb from below the margin of error to competing for third place in Iowa and New Hampshire.
There’s another X-factor: Other states could move up their contests. One thing is likely: Iowa will hold the first caucuses, and New Hampshire will hold the first primary. Perhaps Richardson’s strategy of focusing on those two states is his best option.
We won’t know how this works out for awhile. New Hampshire isn’t planning to finalize its primary date anytime soon, and Iowa won’t likely make any moves before that.
South Carolina Republicans forced a rewrite of the nation’s presidential primary calendar today by moving their primary date up to Jan. 19.