A well-read national Web site that analyzes polls is predicting that Gov. Bill Richardson will win
An analysis on USA Election Polls points out that Richardson, six months ago, was at about 1 percent in both Iowa and New Hampshire but, if you average out recent polls in those states, he’s at 9.8 percent in Iowa and 8.7 percent in New Hampshire.
The site also considers a recent poll conducted by Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates for the Richardson campaign that had him at 13 percent in Iowa and, if only the most likely voters are considered, 18 percent and ahead of Barack Obama in that state.
Before the 2004 Iowa Caucus, the site points out, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were considered the frontrunners, but they came in third and fourth, respectively, in the state.
“
Well then, what do Iowa Democrats like about
“Bill Richardson is winning the issues war because he is the only Democratic candidate running for president that is a governor,” the analysis states. “Iowans traditionally prefer governors because they have executive experience.”
The site was successful at predicting in February and March that
No independent polls have shown
An Obama win in
The site points out that
In addition,
Lastly, the site says, the frontrunners are likely to make visible mistakes in the next few months that will gain a lot of attention, like the recent discussion between Clinton and Edwards in front of an open microphone about excluding some other candidates from future debates.
There is an X-factor in
“Many believe that Gore is not yet running in this race so that Clinton, Edwards and Obama can beat up on each other a bit,” the site states.
Want to know who’s behind the USA Election Polls site? It’s a guy named David Terr, a mathematician. You can learn more about him by clicking here.