A new poll of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire should have supporters of Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign a little nervous.
The poll, conducted by Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor, has Richardson nipping at the heels of John Edwards – at 8 percent to Edwards’ 10 percent – when Al Gore is included. Eliminate Gore, who isn’t running for president, and Edwards’ support jumps to 15 percent. Richardson’s support drops to 7 percent when Gore is not included in the poll.
That’s bad news for Richardson because other recent polls in New Hampshire – none as recent as this – found that Richardson and Edwards were nearly tied at 8-10 percent without Gore in the running. Polls conducted for local newspapers also, in general, tend to be the most accurate.
With Gore in the race, the poll had Hillary Clinton at 27 percent, Barack Obama at 23 percent and Gore at 14 percent, followed by Edwards and Richardson. Without Gore in the mix, Clinton led with 33 percent and Obama had 25 percent, followed by Edwards and Richardson.
The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted July 9-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.
Following other recent polls that had the two nearly tied, many had suspected Richardson was on his way to climbing above Edwards in New Hampshire.
The news isn’t all bad for Richardson. The last time the company conducted a poll was in December, and Richardson has jumped from 2 percent to 8 percent in the Gore-inclusive poll. Edwards has fallen in the Gore-inclusive poll from 16 percent to 10 percent.
But other, earlier polls had already confirmed Richardson’s gains and Edwards’ losses. The question is whether the new poll indicates the beginning of a climb back up for Edwards or is an anomaly.
Liberal talk show host Arnie Arnesen, interviewed for the Monitor article on the poll, said she likes Richardson’s chances better than those of Edwards.
“Bill Richardson is everyone’s second choice,” she told the newspaper. “I think it’s a great place to be.”
A new poll of likely Democratic voters in