Pearce will win big, but race could be interesting

By Whitney Cheshire

Is Congressman Steve Pearce poised for another ho-hum, boring, 20-point victory in 2008? How about another typical, pound-them-into-the-dirt, two-to-one fundraising operation?

Are you yawning yet? That’s easy to do when it comes to this third-term Republican and his sizeable and soundly devastating victory history in New Mexico’s second district.

We could go back to talking about Albuquerque city politics if this subject puts you to sleep… or not.

Because there are some who think it might actually be fun to watch the 2008 election down south even if you don’t live in the 2nd congressional district.

Why?

The Democrats seem to think they have a winner in Bill McCamley. Leastways, friends of Bill Richardson are taking a chance on him.

McCamley reported a respectable $133,000 cash on hand last week – a good chunk of it coming from well-known Richardson supporters and his highly recognizable staffers.

But McCamley is not the only one in the Democratic primary, of course. He’ll likely take on Al Kissling, who got waxed in 2006, as well as a new contender from El Paso (yes, that’s El Paso, Texas), who recently moved to Doña Ana County. But both candidates would have to double-up to catch up, so to speak, to even have a prayer against the well-funded McCamley.

What’s with all the Richardson support?

So what’s with all the Richardson support?

Official Richardson campaign team members Ed Romero, Dave Contarino and Butch Maki have all weighed in with contributions to McCamley, but they did nothing for his counterpart to the north, Martin Heinrich.

Possible reasons?

• No. 1: It’s very likely, and also heavily rumored, that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee told McCamley if he wanted to get on the radar screen he needed to show $150,000 (maybe it was more… who knows?) in the bank for this first report. The DCCC would have to be crazy to play in southern New Mexico again, given their past losses, so the best excuse to stay out would be to set some near-unachievable standards for their candidate.

Enter Richardson et al… and a whole lot of money.

McCamley is doing what he needs to do, but will it be enough?

That’s our question of the day. Because it’s highly unlikely that McCamley will be able to sustain this level of fundraising in-state without some major help from the DCCC on the national stage, especially if the primary field gets crowded.

McCamley has already grabbed the low-hanging fruit. It has the look and feel of an early gamble. There may not be much left on the money tree if those coveted national dollars don’t start rolling in.

Because, after all, who wants to throw good money after bad?

Just a question, of course…

• No. 2: It’s possible that friends of Big Bill want to have a strong Democratic candidate with as much money as possible hacking away in the 2nd Congressional District not necessarily for the hope of victory, but with the intent of beating up on Pearce.

Why would that make sense?

Because Pearce continues to have his name floated as one of the top-tier Republican candidates for Governor in 2010, as well as a possible contender for U.S. Senate should Pete Domenici’s seat come open at some point. Needless to say, Richardson, if he were to find himself running for Senate, would not want to be taking on the popular congressman from down south who had, once again, scored a big victory and accomplished it with very few scratch marks, much less open wounds.

And it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that Lt Gov Diane Denish, who’s already announced her run for governor in 2010, would prefer to not square off with an unscathed Pearce, either.

Pearce will turn up the heat

So back to our original question: Can we expect another boring landslide for Pearce in 2008? Even if the DCCC takes the bait and comes in for the fight?

I’m going to say yes, and for one reason: The tougher the competition, the harder Pearce works. Period. If McCamley turns up the heat, expect Pearce to do the same.

Right now, Pearce is reporting a record fundraising effort. He has about the same amount of money on hand in July that he usually has in December of the off year. And while Pearce has been plagued by staff turnovers in the past, he’s held on to his campaign manager from last year, Grant Olson, and has brought on a beyond-competent field director, Manny Gonzales. Gonzales is a well-known grassroots stalwart and highly respected leader in southern New Mexico Republican politics. He is without a doubt an asset for the Pearce team. Add in the return of Andrea Goff, Pearce’s fundraiser who’s been keeping the “life blood” flowing since he was first elected to Congress in 2002, and he can probably tout the most competent and proven team that he’s had, to date.

But we mentioned work, didn’t we?

In the last year and a half, Pearce has managed to get two big projects moving forward, and he did so through leadership and without a federal earmark of funds. The first is the development of the Continental Divide Trail through southern New Mexico, and the second is the refurbishment of the Mexican Canyon Tressle outside of Cloudcroft. He’s fighting a war on meth by raising awareness in schools and even producing a home-grown, soon-to-be released DVD on meth abuse and prevention.

In short, boring though it may be, Pearce hasn’t changed his style much. He continues to criss-cross the district, meet with constituents in small, hand-shake settings, and listen.

So, yes, McCamley could make this race interesting. There will be a race to watch. But the result will still likely be ho-hum, Pearce with a sizeable win.

Cheshire, AKA the Wednesday Morning Quarterback, is a media relations and campaign consultant in Albuquerque. Her column runs every Wednesday. You can learn more about her by clicking here. Contact her at wednesdaymorningqb@comcast.net.