There appears to be a chance Gov. Bill Richardson will surpass John Edwards in fundraising during the second quarter of 2007, which ends Saturday.
Richardson raised $6.2 million during the first quarter, falling far behind Hillary Clinton, who raised $26 million, and Barack Obama, who raised almost $26 million. Edwards raised $14 million, and Chris Dodd raised almost $9 million, but more than half had been transferred from his Senate campaign account.
Richardson’s campaign has said all along that it hoped to surpass its first-quarter total during the second quarter, and spokesman Pahl Shipley said this weekend that the campaign is “on goal and on budget,” but would not get more specific.
Meanwhile, the Edwards campaign sent an e-mail to supporters this weekend saying it was “closing in on $7 million” and hoping to reach $9 million before the end of June, when the quarter ends. Edwards’ Web site says he has raised $6.7 million this quarter.
And the Washington Post reported this weekend that Richardson “has told other Democrats that he expects to raise more money than Edwards this quarter.” Clinton and Obama are both expected to raise more than $25 million again this quarter.
Catching or surpassing Edwards in the money game could be a big boost to Richardson’s campaign and a blow to Edwards. Depending on how much Richardson raises, his total could vault him into the top tier of candidates, but I don’t want to exaggerate the potential. Richardson might barely beat his first quarter total, and Edwards could get closer to $9 million, and there wouldn’t be much change.
The reality is most likely somewhere in the middle. Richardson will probably do better than last time, and Edwards isn’t going to raise as much as he did in the first quarter. It’s too early to know which candidate, however, will come out on top.
There is one big difference between the two candidates – electability. In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey on Richardson, he trailed two of the GOP frontrunners in head-to-head competition – Rudy Giuliani 43 percent to 39 percent and John McCain 43 percent to 38 percent. Though Richardson had gained in the early June survey compared to one conducted in April, Edwards is way ahead of two GOP frontrunners in the report’s newest survey, released Thursday.
Edwards was beating McCain 49-36 percent – doubling his lead over the last survey in May. He was leading Mitt Romney 51-33 percent in the poll, with Romney gaining slightly since May.
Even if voters don’t take him as seriously as Clinton or Obama, Edwards’ strength is that voters know and like him. Plus, he’s from the South, and the Democrats have a long record of sending southerners to the White House.
Though Edwards’ campaign has faltered during the second quarter of 2007, he could easily turn things around. Besting Richardson in fundraising this quarter would help stop his slide in the polls.
Beating Edwards in fundraising would be quite an accomplishment for the Richardson campaign. We’ll know by mid-July, and probably sooner, how it turns out.
A prior version of this posting incorrectly stated that Clinton raised $36 million during the first quarter.
