Richardson gains in newest Nevada poll, but shifting primary calendar means he needs to climb faster

A week after a poll showed support for Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential run jump in Iowa, another finds him creeping up in Nevada.

The new poll has Richardson at 6 percent in Nevada – better than the 2-3 percent reflected in previous polls, but still far short of any of the frontrunners in the race to be the Democrats’ 2008 presidential nominee.

Last week, a poll showed support for Richardson in Iowa jump from 1 percent to 5 percent.

The Nevada poll, conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, had Hillary Clinton way ahead of everyone else with 37 percent. It had John Edwards at 13 percent and Barack Obama at 12 percent.

It’s hard to figure out how to interpret this poll because it allowed people to select Al Gore, who isn’t running for president, and 9 percent said they support him.

The poll, conducted April 30-May 2, surveyed 300 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

Though the poll shows a gain for Richardson, it isn’t cause for his campaign to be ecstatic. He’s still within the margin of error and, more importantly, Clinton is gaining in a number of important states.

She’s losing ground in Iowa, but Clinton has gained in polls recently in California, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Richardson has staked his presidential bid on four states that until last week held the earliest primaries – Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Last week, however, Florida moved its contest up to Jan. 29 – the same day as South Carolina’s – and it’s becoming increasingly impossible to predict which states will matter most in determining which candidate gets the party’s nomination.

When it appeared he would only need to compete in four, small states, it seemed that Richardson could keep up with Clinton and other frontrunners. But having to compete in the four smaller states plus a number of large states that plan to hold their primaries in late January or early February makes it increasingly difficult for Richardson to keep up with candidates who have more money and larger organizations.

So the gains in Iowa and Nevada are important for Richardson’s campaign, but he needs more positive movement in the polls, and it needs to happen quickly, if he’s to have any shot at the nomination.