If historical trends are an indicator,
So the reality is that the election is too close to call.
“We knew this would be a close election and that’s proven true, as tonight the vote is simply to close to call,” Gov. Bill Richardson said Tuesday night. “What is clear is that the voters of Doña Ana are both cautious with public investment and hopeful in seeking to create a high-tech, high-wage economy and improve math and science education for
Unofficial results, with everything but provisional ballots counted, give spaceport tax supporters a 204-vote, 1.2-percent lead – 8,781 votes to 8,577. But there are 541 provisional ballots yet to be dealt with, and they have the potential to change everything.
County elections officials can’t start accepting or rejecting those ballots until Thursday at 9 a.m., when the commission officially meets to allow the start of canvassing. Elections workers will spend Wednesday sorting through them and preparing to begin the final tally. They’ll also rerun the unofficial numbers, said Elections Supervisor Lynn Ellins.
Ellins predicted that, based on historical trends, roughly 200 provisional ballots will be rejected. If that happens, tax opponents will need about 80 percent of those that are counted to win the election, but Ellins pointed out that the provisional tally is, historically, roughly proportionate to the rest of the vote.
If that trend plays out in this election, the tax will be approved.
But several people pointed out to me that the results of early and absentee ballots are also, generally, proportionate to the election-day total.
That wasn’t the case in this election.
Some 53 percent of those who cast ballots on Tuesday voted in favor of the tax, but only 41 percent of early voters and 48 percent of absentee voters supported the tax.
Still, there was a sense of optimism among tax proponents who were at the
It’s better to be up 204 votes than down 204 votes,” said Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley.
“We’re going to win this thing,” said Commissioner Kent Evans.
New Mexico Economic Development Secretary Rick Homans wasn’t ready to go that far. He said his office had prepared a news release to send out if the tax was approved and a second to send out if it was rejected.
“We never considered the need for a third release,” he said.
Homans later released this statement in a news release:
“It looks like the election went very smoothly, but the results at this point are too close to call,” he said. “While there is strong support in
Tax opponents weren’t at the government center by the time final results – minus provisional ballots, of course – were in, so I was unable to get comment.
Voter turnout, election operation, were impressive
Even if all provisional ballots are rejected, voter turnout will top 18 percent. In a small, ballot-initiative election, that’s rare, and it’s unusual for
Whether they support or oppose the tax, a number of county voters are passionate about the issue. The turnout is impressive.
Also impressive is the way the election was run. There were few problems. Remember that, about a month ago, commissioners voted to more than double the number of polling places, forcing elections staffers to rework their entire plan for the election.
Considering that commissioners gave elections staff only 30 days to turn this from a small election to a full-scale operation, the Elections Bureau did an amazing job.
It was even noticed by
“It’s also clear that the election was run transparently and effectively,” he said.
When will we know?
Ellins said he believes all provisional ballots will be counted by Friday evening. He predicted that about 75 will be tallied on Thursday, and it remains possible that we’ll know whether the tax is approved on that day because, though some ballots will be left to count, it could become, at some point, mathematically impossible for the result to change.
But that’s only one possibility. We’ll see what happens.
A prior version of this posting incorrectly stated the number of provisional ballots tax opponents would need to win the election.