Help determine your community’s future by voting

I’ve been asked several times whether I will endorse the spaceport tax. I won’t – I generally don’t do endorsements. With that said, here are my thoughts on the vote:

Tuesday’s election on whether to raise the gross receipts tax 1/4 percent in Doña Ana County to help fund Spaceport America is about much more than money.

It’s about whether this community wants to embark on a road that will be full of potholes and uncertainty, but a road that has the potential to change the world and, in the process, lead to better lives for the area’s residents.

On Tuesday, this community will make a decision that could determine its course for decades.

A “yes” vote – one that would require people in Doña Ana County to pay an additional penny on every $4 they spend – is a choice to attempt to reshape this community into the hub of the world’s commercial space industry, an attempt that is full of promise but has no certainty of success.

A “no” vote means the county continues on its current path. Las Cruces would continue to be a nice place to live, with a growing population of retirees and a strong government sector. It would continue to be surrounded by rural, poor communities that lack infrastructure and don’t have the money to adequately address the situation.

History suggests that commercial spaceflight is the next step in mankind’s journey. As the industry develops, many regions will benefit, but one, as we’ve seen countless times with other developing industries, will capitalize on being the first by becoming the industry’s center.

Santa Fe may not give more if the tax fails

The state’s method of funding the spaceport, which includes gross receipts tax increases in Doña Ana, Otero and Sierra counties, is a sore spot for many. Some view the gross receipts tax as regressive. Others say the state should pay for the entire facility. Many say Virgin Galactic should pay for it.

Virgin shouldn’t have to pay to build the facility. Contrary to what some tax opponents have claimed, the company is not paying to construct infrastructure in Sweden or California or anywhere else. As with its airline division, Virgin plans to rent others’ facilities, not build its own. That’s the standard for airports and seaports around the nation.

Tax opponents’ complaints about the state, on the other hand, have some validity. It’s true that the state is pitching in well over half the money for the spaceport. Lawmakers have also demanded a local match. In the case of the commuter rail being built in Northern New Mexico, they also demanded a local match: Each community has to build its own train station.

But how many times in the past have residents of Doña Ana County seen their state tax dollars pay for infrastructure in Santa Fe or Albuquerque from which they would never benefit? It would have been fair for the state to pay for the entire spaceport.

But the Santa Fe-centered Legislature devised the current funding plan that includes the local taxes. Lawmakers will be hesitant to approve state funds to make up the difference if the tax isn’t approved. Though Gov. Bill Richardson and other tax supporters are being slightly overdramatic when they say a “no” vote on Tuesday means the spaceport won’t be built, they’re not far off.

The Legislature has offered this area more than $100 million to help make the spaceport a reality, but its members want local residents to pitch in.

Other communities are competing

In addition to the strong possibility that the state won’t give more if the local tax isn’t approved, there’s another reason a “no” vote could mean the end of the spaceport: Tax supporters in Southern New Mexico aren’t the only ones who understand that a community somewhere is going to benefit from the development of a new industry. There are a number of communities vying for that prize.

Though some others have already secured licenses from the Federal Aviation Administration to operate commercial spaceports, none have a tenant like Virgin.

That’s because there isn’t currently another company like Virgin. It is the leader in the infantile space tourism industry. There are other startup companies that hope to follow, but Virgin’s capital and technology make it the leading company in the new space race.

The non-binding memorandum of agreement signed last week reveals the company’s plan to lease New Mexico’s spaceport for at least 20 years and to build its worldwide headquarters somewhere in New Mexico.

Before the company signs a document that commits two decades here, however, Virgin executives want to know the spaceport will be built. Virgin plans to make such a commitment if voters in Doña Ana County approve the tax.

Virgin’s presence would attract other businesses. We already have several smaller companies that have moved to Las Cruces on the belief that the tax will be approved. If it is, more will come, and they’ll try to make Las Cruces the worldwide center of the commercial space industry.

If voters don’t approve the tax, the spaceport is in limbo until January, when the Legislature meets again and could be asked for additional money. That would give other communities nine months to tempt Virgin away from New Mexico.

Without Virgin, New Mexico would lose its edge in the race to become the center of this new industry.

Voting for the tax is a big risk

Approving the tax comes with risk. There are a number of questions that can’t currently be answered.

The commercial space industry is in its infancy. There will likely be major advances in the next few decades that make the technology more affordable and reliable as the industry matures.

But as other spaceports develop, companies that utilize them will also contribute to the industry’s maturation. The major advances could be developed here. They could be developed in Florida, or Sweden, or the United Arab Emirates.

If the industry starts out here, and companies cluster in Las Cruces, it’s more likely those advances will be developed here, but there’s no certainty. If they’re developed elsewhere, the industry hub could move.

There’s also the risk of catastrophe. There could, and most likely will, be accidents. What would that mean? It’s impossible to predict. Upham is one of the most ideal places in the world for a spaceport, in part because of its remoteness, but accidents could still be costly and demoralizing.

Realizing the dream would be hard work

Some supporters of the spaceport tax make it sound as though its approval would mean thousands of jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars magically flowing into our economy. That’s not how it would happen.

Success will take the commitment of companies like Virgin, which is investing more than $200 million to build its spacecraft, on top of the tens of millions of dollars it will pay in rent here. It will require paying customers – the rich, at first – to sustain the industry until it matures.

Most importantly, the industry is going to develop around a community that realizes the road ahead will be difficult, but has the vision to see it through to fruition.

Is Las Cruces that place? The decision rests with voters. That’s the beauty of democracy. This community gets to decide whether it wants to take such a risk.

So I’m not endorsing the tax. I’m not telling you how to vote. I’m just asking that you do vote. Exercise your right to help determine your community’s future.

A prior version of this posting implied that the money pledged by the state would not be available unless the tax is approved. It’s more complicated than that: $24.5 million has been made available with no requirements. $33 million can’t be spent unless the state signs the lease with Virgin, which is expected in 2-3 months. The remaining $67 million in state funding can only be spent if Virgin signs the lease and the state obtains the FAA license.

There’s a good chance that, if the tax isn’t approved, Virgin will not sign the lease, and conditions placed on $100 million in state money won’t be met.