Scandal injects uncertainty into New Mexico politics

At this point, it’s difficult to size up the impact of the scandal surrounding phone calls Sen. Pete Domenici and Rep. Heather Wilson made to former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias, but that uncertainty, because of what’s at stake, has been enough to rock New Mexico politics.

The scandal has the potential to set off a domino effect in which a number of state and local officials make runs at higher offices.

Then again, it’s possible that nothing will happen.

If you need a quick refresher on what’s been going on, click here. For the newest on the national implications, click here.

A number of credible political analysts say Domenici and Wilson violated Congressional ethics by calling Iglesias, regardless of whether they pressured him to speed indictments in a public corruption probe in time to sway voters in the November 2006 election. Others say they did nothing wrong as long as they didn’t apply pressure.

Some say it depends on whether they were acting on behalf of constituents or on their own. Others say that’s irrelevant.

There are also those who say that, if Iglesias is telling the truth, Domenici and Wilson could become targets of a criminal obstruction of justice investigation. Others say that’s an outrageous overstating of the situation.

On Thursday, the Albuquerque Journal ran an editorial calling for a probe by an ethics panel or independent counsel. The New York Times slammed Domenici in an editorial.

What’s certain is that a Senate panel will investigate the allegations against Domenici. A House panel might also investigate Wilson, but it takes a request from a member of the House, and none have stepped forward to do that.

The whole debacle is certain to affect both members of Congress. For the 74-year-old Domenici, who had only just convinced the state when the scandal broke that his health wouldn’t keep him from running for re-election in 2008, the stress is certain to take a toll on his physical health. At his age, will he be able to handle what is quickly becoming the biggest scandal of his career?

Unless the worst happens, and he becomes the subject of a criminal investigation, it isn’t likely the scandal itself will end Domenici’s career. Even a censure for an ethics violation wouldn’t likely weaken him enough that he would face a serious challenge in 2008.

So it’s likely that Domenici will only be done next year if he steps aside voluntarily or is forced out by his health.

Domenici won’t likely step aside voluntarily

The scandal makes it even less likely that he would opt to step aside. Who among Republicans would be in line to replace him? Wilson is severely weakened. With their one-vote deficit in the Senate and a number of other seats to defend in 2008, the Republicans can’t afford to lose Domenici.

Wilson won re-election in 2006 by 861 votes out of more than 211,000. She threw a lot of mud that stuck to Patricia Madrid during the campaign, and had a lot thrown at her that didn’t stick. Regardless of the resolution to this scandal, damage is done and the mud will stick in 2008.

Many believe she is now vulnerable enough that she wouldn’t win re-election and certainly couldn’t defeat a strong Democrat in a statewide race to replace Domenici.

Who would the Republicans have, then? U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce seems to be the best-positioned candidate. But Wilson and Domenici are the sort of moderate-to-right Republicans most in the party and even a number of Democrats can get behind. Pearce is a right-winger many doubt can win a statewide race.

Pearce is obviously positioning himself for a future try at Senate or governor. Since being re-elected last year he has tried, unsuccessfully, for a higher leadership position in his party, made public appearances with Gov. Bill Richardson on a couple of issues and visited Las Cruces more often than ever before except during campaigns.

If Domenici and Wilson aren’t censured, many believe they’ll go on with their careers unscathed. Others say that’s true for Domenici, but Wilson, because her seat is so hotly contested, is permanently damaged no matter what the outcome.

Open Senate seat would trigger scramble

One thing is certain: An open Senate seat in 2008 would trigger a scramble for a number of state and local positions.

Pearce, Wilson and Rep. Tom Udall might all run for Domenici’s seat. So might Richardson, depending on what happens in the presidential race. Other possibilities include Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez.

If Domenici isn’t out, a number of Democrats, including State Rep. Al Park, State Sen. Gerald Ortiz y Pino, former Land Commissioner Ray Powell, and Terry Brunner, a longtime aide to U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, might run against Wilson in 2008.

If Domenici is out, many believe Pearce will run for Senate. State Rep. Joseph Cervantes and Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley are both considering running for Pearce’s House seat in 2008, and it’s certainly easier to win an open House seat than take down an incumbent.

That’s just a sampling of the potential the current scandal has to upset the political landscape in New Mexico, and it illustrates why it has rocked the state so hard. There’s a lot at stake.

For those considering their political futures, much is uncertain. Many will sit back and wait to see how this plays out.