During a visit to Iowa this weekend, Gov. Bill Richardson said the first four primary contests will decide who becomes the Democratic Party’s 2008 nominee for president, the Associated Press is reporting.
Those are contests held in January in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Richardson’s statements buck the thinking of many that other, larger states will be more important in the selection process. California, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and other states are considering moving their primaries all up to the same day in early February, and many campaigns are remaking their strategies to shift resources to those larger states that include more influential media markets.
Richardson, who was instrumental in getting the Democratic National Committee to move up Nevada’s contest to January, says he’s sticking to his four-state strategy and a pledge to run a grassroots campaign win with fewer resources than the better-funded candidates.
“I believe the first four states, with Iowa and New Hampshire being the top ones, will determine who the president is. I always felt that way,” the Associated Press quoted Richardson as saying. “I have my own plan to convince the voters I’m the best candidate. It’s called grassroots campaigning. You know, debates, issues and discussion.”
“What the pundits say about who’s in, who’s out, who’s got the most money doesn’t matter,” Richardson told the news service. “I have a sustained plan to introduce myself to the voters… and so far I feel very satisfied. I feel I can do very well.”
He should. New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote this weekend (subscription required) that Richardson “is the candidate most likely to rise” because of his unique combination of experience, executive leadership and charisma.
More importantly, Richardson appears to be gaining in the polls against the other Democratic candidates. He started out at about 1 percent in mid-January. Several polls have placed him at roughly 3-5 percent in recent weeks.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released last week shows him at three percent in the Democratic primary race. The same poll had him at 1 percent in January.
A Los Angeles Times poll of party insiders released Saturday found that Richardson has the backing of 9 percent – not too far behind Al Gore’s 10 percent, Barack Obama’s 11 percent, John Edwards’ 15 percent and Hillary Clinton’s 20 percent.
The numbers may look puny, and they are, but they also show what appears to be the beginning of a climb, at least in the field of Democratic candidates.
Against Republicans, the numbers aren’t currently so encouraging. Richardson actually dropped in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in potential match ups against John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. In the poll released Friday, he trailed Giuliani 52-35 percent and McCain 45-36 percent.
In January, Richardson trailed Giuliani 49-34 percent and McCain 43-39 percent.
During a visit to