Many have been waiting to see whether a November surprise would turn the nation’s mood back to Republicans to the point that they would keep control of the House and Senate in Tuesday’s elections.
It looks like we have two November surprises.
A verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial is expected on Sunday. The former Iraqi dictator will likely find out on that day whether he’ll hang, according to Reuters.
Saddam’s chief lawyer said the timing of the verdict was designed to boost President Bush’s popularity in advance of Tuesday’s election, and urged a delay.
Political analysts began saying about a week ago that a verdict before Election Day was possible. Historically, major milestones in the president’s war on terror have resulted in a boost in his ratings, and this might be another.
Since control of the House and Senate is up for grabs, even the smallest boost could make the difference. With only two days between the verdict and election, such a boost would still exist when voters head to the polls on Tuesday.
But there’s a second November surprise looming that might keep some Republicans home on Election Day.
The head of the 30-million-member National Association of Evangelicals resigned from that position and stepped down as pastor of a
Evangelist Ted Haggard admitted Friday, according to the Associated Press, that he bought methamphetamine and received a massage from the prostitute, but denied the sex allegations.
His admission rang somewhat hollow because he at first said late Thursday that he had never met the man and didn’t know who he was.
On the flip side, his accuser failed a lie detector test about the alleged sex this morning. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything: Lie detector tests aren’t considered reliable enough to be admissible in court, and the man initiated the test himself in an attempt to prove he was being truthful.
There isn’t likely ample time to resolve the allegations before voters head to the polls Tuesday. That’s the problem with last-minute allegations.
Haggard is a vocal opponent of gay marriage and had been leading the charge in favor of the ban that’s on the ballot Tuesday in
Evangelical Christians, who largely voted for Republicans in 2004, have become increasingly frustrated with the GOP since then. A feeling that Republicans are ignoring their agenda and repeated GOP scandals have soured the relationship between the party and many evangelicals.
But many evangelicals aren’t willing to cross over to the Democratic Party, so events like this and the Mark Foley scandal may discourage them and increase the chances they won’t vote at all.
Then again, since there’s so little time before the election, and the full truth likely won’t come out before then, evangelicals might see this as a political attempt to defeat gay marriage bans that are on the ballot in several states, and they might be more motivated than ever to turn out.
Who knows how these two events will influence the election. And are there any more surprises to come?