Readers’ election predictions

I asked earlier this week for your election predictions. Here are most of the responses I received. Thanks to those who took the time to do this.

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Wilson, Madrid race will drive everything

(This prediction was added about 10:30 a.m., after I published the original set of predictions.)

The turnout in the counties that encompass the First Congressional District – Bernalillo, Torrance, and parts of Valencia and Sandoval – will drive all the races in the state. These voters will be turning out in higher percentages than the north or the south to cast a ballot for Heather Wilson or Patsy Madrid. But no matter which congressional candidates they choose, these are mostly moderate Democrats and Republicans who will vote for Gov. Bill Richardson and boost his statewide total to 68 percent. This is partly a vote for Richardson and partly due to the fact that these voters don’t really know Republican challenger John Dendahl very well.

Likewise Jim Baca, who is better know in and around Albuquerque, wins the land commissioner’s job with 52 percent, Mary Hererra pulls almost 70 percent statewide in the secretary of state’s race, while other statewide Democrats put up numbers in between. My guess on the First Congressional District race is Madrid, 51 percent, Wilson, 49 percent.

If Madrid comes a few hundred votes short, then the Democrats can look to the paper ballots for the loss. There will be stray marks on the ballots and long lines at polling places and, with schools closed, I wonder if women with child-care obligations will wait two hours to vote. It’s easy to tell a telephone pollster you will vote; it will be a bit harder Tuesday to accomplish that task.

The one mystery for me on election night is which incumbent congressman puts up a larger percentage – Steve Pearce or Tom Udall, and my guess is Udall, as Pearce’s challenger, Al Kissling, had an active campaign while Tom Dolin, Udall’s challenger, did not. If I’m wrong on this one, I’ll buy Heath lunch next time he’s in Santa Fe.

Nationally, I see a Democratic pick up of 25-30 seats in the House. And I see Democrats taking the Senate with 51 seats, but no one will know that until after all the absentees are counted in Missouri, which will be this year’s Florida.

Bruce Krasnow

The Santa Fe New Mexican city desk

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Democrats take House and Senate

I’ve been around watching and participating in politics for a long time, and I’m a believer in the “Pendulum Theory.” Every so often the public gets fed up with those in control and “throws the rascals out.” We’re in one of those swings of the pendulum, and I predict that the U.S. House of Representatives will be 230-205 in favor of the Democrats, and the Senate will be 51 to 49, also for the Democrats.

James Kadlecek

San Miguel, N.M.

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Some national Democrat gains, but Republicans gain locally

I think the Democrats will definitely take the U.S. House because those candidates are historically closer to the people and more accessible.

The Democrats will take some seats in the U.S. Senate, but the Republicans will retain a majority. There is an anti-incumbent sentiment in the nation, but there are some respected, moderate republicans who will retain their seats.

I believe Republican Jim Bibb will win the attorney general race because he brings a respectable military/law enforcement background to the race, which enhances his fresh, “no nonsense” outlook. Democrat Gary King represents an old, bureaucratic status quo persona and Bibb will easily transcend that. Bibb will have 60 percent of the vote; moderates in southern, eastern and central New Mexico will carry the majority of his victory.

Republican Lorenzo Garcia will win the auditor race because voters are angered by the Jeff Armijo crisis.

Good ol’ King (and Gov.) Bill Richardson will win/buy/steal (whatever you want to call it) re-election by more than 60 percent because he is driving a political steam roller right now and nothing will stop him. Republican challenger John Dendahl unfortunately has no base with the grassroots of New Mexico and Hispanic voters. If the Republicans really wanted a chance to stop Richardson, they should have had a southern, moderate Hispanic run against him. It’s unfortunate that I’m still in college!

I think Republican challenger Isaac Chavez will defeat Democratic incumbent Andy Nuñez in the House District 36 race because of his roots in Las Cruces, his background, and because he will bring a pragmatic problem-solving approach to the district. I find that many people in that district cannot recall any visible changes that have affected them while Nuñez has been in office. It’s just time for a change.

Democratic challenger Ralph Misquez will demolish Republican incumbent Todd Garrison and be elected sheriff of Doña Ana County. Misquez has better experience in law enforcement and has more community involvement than Garrison. Misquez has a lot of friends in Doña Ana, and this time he will win.

Mack Haley will win the county commission District 3 seat, though the majority of his district is registered Democratic. The wealthy farmers and Las Alturas residents that are also in his district are Republican and will actually show up to vote. He is well-educated, and his stance on regulated progress in reference to land development could grab crossover votes from Democrats.

Aaron H. Diaz

Notre Dame, Ind., formerly Las Cruces, N.M.

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Kissling will beat Pearce

There are a lot of factors to take into consideration when trying to predict the outcome of the 2^nd Congressional District race, but after working on the campaign of Democratic challenger Al Kissling for about three months, I may have some insights that others have not had time to acquire. It’s hard to be objective since I have known Al for a long time and he is a close friend, but here’s what I see happening. Al has become a powerful campaigner over the past months and people have learned to like him and trust what he says.

Trust is a quality most find missing in today’s politicians, but Al has it and he has earned it from his backers. I see people from all over the district flocking to Al when he attends events in their towns. He draws democrats, republicans and independents alike. In Ruidoso there is a very strong organization called “Republicans for Kissling.” The latest poll taken in Carlsbad has Al even with Republican incumbent Steve Pearce. I don’t know the size of the sample, but it was reported to us by an employee from the Richardson campaign who said it was reported “from Albuquerque.” Al has a number of people working hard for him in Carlsbad, so I’m not surprised. Almost everywhere in the district, there are strong groups of dedicated people working for Al.

In the beginning of the campaign people said, “Do you think Al has a chance?” Now they are confident Al will win. People are smart and they can see what is happening. Almost no one speaks of Pearce in glowing terms. I was in Hatch and I was stunned to hear from the mayor that Pearce has never been to Hatch to offer his help with the flood. All over the district people speak of Pearce as someone in Washington they never see. I have never heard anyone, and I mean anyone, ever speak of Pearce in glowing terms. As Al has always said, his opponent would be his biggest asset. It seems very few people in the district have ever seen Pearce. I must admit, I have not talked to people in Hobbs or Artesia, where I understand he is seen on some occasions.

The national media has finally decided to report on the Bush White House and, of course, everyone knows about all of the problems in Congress. When I see CNN doing a series on our “Broken Government,” I know they have come to realize that the discontent in the country is so huge that it is now a saleable item. It takes a lot to get the cable networks to take on a national topic when they will usually be happy with a local murder or car chase. It’s a lot like Fox News’ discovery that right-wing conservatism sells. Nevertheless, it is a strong indicator of the national mood, and the mood is, “Throw the bums out!” In the district there are groups of people such as the disabled vets who are willing to organize and raise money to defeat Pearce. They tie him to the corruption in Congress.

This is not just a regular election year. I am always surprised at how many people I talk with who don’t understand that. If you go to the bookstore in the mall, there are dozens of books about the Iraq war and about the corruption in Washington. There are even books on individuals such as Rumsfeld and Cheney. Of course, it is next to impossible to miss the national polls showing how low the president’s ratings are and the national disgust with the conduct of the war. Everything that is going on nationally and locally, coupled with the incumbent’s lack of connection with the electorate, spells victory for Kissling. The nation and New Mexico hunger for an honest man, and Al is, without a doubt, that honest man.

Very few people know that in the spring a poll was conducted in the district by the then-budding Kissling campaign to try to assess Al’s chances against Pearce. The independent company sampled more than 2,000 people and asked one, simple question: “If the election were held today, who would you vote for, Stevan Pearce or Al Kissling?” Al Kissling won over Pearce in Doña Ana and Grant counties. This was before anyone had ever heard of Kissling! Participants were willing to take a totally unknown person over their current congressman! It was a measure of what people thought of their congressman.

After carefully looking over the voting results of the 2004 2nd Congressional District race, I predict Al Kissling will get 136,000 votes and Stevan Pearce 83,000 votes.

Bill Grigaliunas

Kissling campaign manager

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Madrid, Lyons, King will win

I predict that Republicans will maintain control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats will gain greatly in the U.S. House, but Republicans will keep a slight hold.

Gov. Bill Richardson will get 64.5 percent of the vote.

U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., will beat Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid 51 to 49 percent, although there is a good chance that it might go down to a 50-50 split with Wilson winning by a hair.

Republican incumbent Pat Lyons will be re-elected land commissioner, as the eastern part of the state votes in a major block for him, and other rural areas give him the vast majority of their vote. He will win enough of the Santa Fe/Las Cruces/Albuquerque vote to hold off Democratic challenger Jim Baca. Trust me, the votes out of Albuquerque will show that many democrats themselves won’t vote for Baca.

Democrat Gary King will win attorney general 55 to 42 percent. I think Republican Jim Bibb’s ads show that he is a one-trick pony in campaigning. (“I fought in Afghanistan; therefore, I am a good prosecutor.”) I think the public will be turned off by this.

In the secretary of state race, Democrat Mary Hererra will win a tighter race than expected.

Kirk C.

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Look for a Democratic wave

The voters, most of whom are now independents, are so fed up with all the garbage being thrown at them over the past few weeks, and sick of seeing our young people dropping like flies in Iraq while the Iraqi people collectively suffer more than they ever did under Saddam Hussein, that the Democrats will take the House, and either tie or take Senate.

Anonymous

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Local results will be split

As a lifelong resident of the area, I predict the following local results:

Sheriff: Misquez 53 percent, Garrison 47 percent

County commission, District 1: Butler 56 percent, Zimmerman 44 percent

County commission, District 3: Haley 53 percent, Karen Perez 47 percent

Assessor: Gary Perez 64 percent, Adams 36 percent

House District 53: Cote 52 percent, Marquardt 48 percent

House District 37: Witt 52 percent, Steinborn 48 percent

House District 36: Chavez 53 percent, Nuñez 47 percent

House District 35: Lujan 60 percent, Joy 40 percent