Madrid holds lead after debate, and Democrats’ chances of taking the House look good

A new poll confirms that U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., is still trailing Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid.

The newest Reuters/Zogby poll, released today, has Madrid ahead 53 to 44 percent. The poll, a live survey of at least 500 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 24-29, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The last Albuquerque Journal poll, conducted by pollster Brian Sanderoff’s group between Oct. 17 and 19, had Madrid ahead 45-42 percent, with nine percent undecided. That poll surveyed 503 registered voters and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The last Reuters/Zogby poll, conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 2, had Madrid ahead 50-40 percent.

The Journal polls are considered by most experts in New Mexico to be slightly more accurate than others. But the new Reuters/Zogby poll is the first to include any questioning of likely voters since the Oct. 24 televised debate between the two candidates.

The last Journal poll on the race will be released this weekend.

Wilson and Madrid continue to fight hard, and their parties’ big guns are helping out. Former President Bill Clinton will be in Albuquerque Thursday to rally voters for Madrid, and first lady Laura Bush will be in Albuquerque Friday to rally voters for Wilson.

The newest poll was part of a larger Reuters/Zogby survey that showed Democrats ahead in 12 of 15 key Republican-held seats in the U.S. House. The last Reuters/Zogby poll had Democrats ahead in 11 of those 15 races.

Since then, according to Reuters, Democrats improved their standing in nine of those districts, while Republicans gained ground in six.

Unless there’s a looming November surprise, Republicans should be worried. Democrats need 15 seats to take control of the House.

“Democrats are getting very close to that magic number of 15,” pollster John Zogby told Reuters. “Republicans are really on the ropes.”