Kissling shows that Pearce is vulnerable

Al Kissling received just over 40 percent of the vote in his bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M. It was a surprise that has Democrats motivated about what might happen in two years.

Kissling came into the campaign with no political experience and raised just under $150,000. Pearce raised $1.3 million.

Contrast Kissling’s finances with those of New Mexico House District 37 candidate Jeff Steinborn, who raised more than $100,000 for a local race.

Kissling fared better against Pearce than political veteran (and our newly elected attorney general) Gary King did two years ago. King received just under 40 percent of the vote and spent more than $1 million.

A lot has changed in two years.

Many Democrats have said since Tuesday that Kissling’s performance got their attention. If he could reach 40 percent, imagine what a skilled, veteran campaigner could do.

Pollster Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque recently analyzed for me what it would take to defeat Pearce. He said the candidate should be from Las Cruces and be a conservative or moderate Democrat.

That’s because the candidate needs to distinguish himself or herself regionally from Pearce. Many conservative Democrats in the eastern part of the district are happy with Pearce’s leadership and will continue to vote for him. A Democrat can steal Republican votes in Las Cruces and the western part of the district by regionalizing the race.

Kissling effectively did that by focusing on veterans’ issues.

The other key is that there must be only one Democrat in the race, Sanderoff said. If Democrats waste all their money fighting each other in a primary, there’s little left to take on Pearce. That was the case during the 2004 and 2002 races.

Kissling did not have a primary battle.

What he didn’t have that would have helped was the prior political experience necessary to convince his party and donors that they should give to his campaign. A more skilled politician, especially now that Kissling has proven that Pearce is vulnerable, will be able to raise a lot more money for the 2008 race.

Kissling might not have won, but to many Democrats his campaign was victorious in showing the party that Pearce is beatable.

Pearce, like President Bush, is committed to the Iraq war. His views on the war on terrorism are similar to the president’s and he is ideologically attached to them. The anti-Bush sentiment that characterized this election might still exist in two years.

Then again, Democrats control the House and Senate. They have two years to either do a good job or mess things up, so the climate might be completely different during the next election cycle.

There are some energetic, intelligent Democrats in the Las Cruces area who might make strong candidates in 2008. Keep your eyes open.