An analysis of county government races

Here’s my analysis of the races for the four Doña Ana County offices that are up for grabs on Tuesday:

County Commission District 1

Democratic incumbent Oscar Vasquez Butler is facing Republican challenger John Zimmerman in this race. Voters have a choice between two obviously different candidates.

Butler is an outspoken critic of what he calls “uncontrolled growth.” He opposes more development on the mesas and mountains, saying there is enough land in the valley, but at the same time cautions that those who choose to live in the Mesilla Valley must be aware that water is limited and farms must be preserved.

Zimmerman talks about the need for more growth and development to better the lives of residents of the county, though he says that development needs to be better regulated. He favors development on the mesas.

Butler is the sort of politician people love or hate, and this race comes down to whether people like what he has done in the past four years. As a commissioner and member of the Extraterritorial Zoning Authority, Butler has repeatedly voted against new development projects, infuriating many but winning the praise of residents of the ETZ who don’t want their way of life disturbed.

In addition, Butler has worked tirelessly to bring attention to the plight of those living in the county’s colonias, most of which are located in this district. He has earned the respect of many in those rural areas who have historically not voted or seen any reason to be involved in government.

Butler needs those people to vote. Whether they will in large numbers remains to be seen.

This district also includes the Picacho Hills area. Butler’s stance on growth has included votes against many developments like those already in Picacho Hills, and many residents of that area disagree with and feel ignored by him.

In addition, this district includes the northern part of the county and the Village of Hatch, which is looking to Spaceport America as a big part of its future. Butler was the only commissioner to vote recently against asking voters whether to hike the gross receipts tax to pay for the spaceport.

Butler’s vote was unpopular among Hatch community leaders. Whether that has any consequence for him will be determined by whether north-county voters show up at the polls. They haven’t shown up to vote early.

But, thus far, south-county voters haven’t shown up in droves, though more have voted there than in the north county. Though I’m hopeful that more rural voters will turn out, this race may be decided by the pro- and anti-development voters who live on the north and west sides of Las Cruces.

County Commission District 3

In this race, Republican Mack Haley and Democrat Karen Perez are vying to replace outgoing Commissioner Paul Curry, a Republican.

The candidates both promote smart and regulated growth. Both are well educated and have done a good job of communicating their values.

Haley had a primary opponent, which helped him get a jump on getting his name and message out to voters in the district. At the first forum I saw the two participate in a couple of months ago, Perez was less assertive, and often let Haley answer questions first. As a result, she ended up saying often that she agreed with him.

The second time I saw both at a forum, that had changed. Perez appeared more assertive and confident. She’s fluent in Spanish and lets voters know by speaking to them, when appropriate, in that language.

The district has a large, conservative population in the Las Alturas area and the eastern side of Las Cruces, but it also includes New Mexico State University, the more liberal Mesilla Park area, and portions of the Democratic south-county.

Haley, a longtime NMSU employee, is popular there and has the university vote in the bag. Perez has the south-county vote, but, as is the case with Butler, whether a large number of those voters turnout remains to be seen.

This is likely to be a very close race.

County Sheriff

I shared earlier this week my thoughts on the two candidates in this race, Republican incumbent Todd Garrison and Democratic challenger Ralph Misquez. You can read that posting by clicking here.

This is the hottest local race in Doña Ana County. Many expect that we’ll be up late on election night waiting to learn who wins.

I agree. With such qualified candidates running against each other, this should be a tight race.

Garrison has the advantage of incumbency and of having worked with a bipartisan group over the last 18 months to secure a tax increase that has vastly improved the situation at the sheriff’s department. But there is much more to do, and Misquez has spent three years campaigning for this job. He has talked with so many people in that time that he has earned the right to say he truly understands their concerns.

Misquez has the advantage of being Hispanic and a Democrat in a Democratic, Hispanic county. In recent weeks, Garrison’s new signs have added the name of his undersheriff, Chuck Franco.

Both candidates know the concerns of residents and have similar goals for improving the department. Misquez is campaigning full-time, while Garrison has continued to run the sheriff’s department during the campaign, so Misquez has probably knocked on more doors and met with more people.

But Garrison has accomplished a lot in 18 months, and voters can see that.

I could go on and on about why one candidate or the other might have the advantage, and that’s the point: With such good candidates, this race is impossible to predict.

County Assessor

Republican challenger H.F. “Junior” Adams has run on a platform of change, saying he can do the job better than Democratic incumbent Gary Perez.

The problem for Adams is that Perez has been able to effectively respond to every complaint he has made.

Adams had a personal experience with the assessor’s office that was part of his motivation to run. He thought a fraternal organization he belongs to deserved a tax break that Perez wouldn’t provide. Adams has complained about this at more than one public forum, and Perez has been able to site state law that doesn’t allow such a tax break.

Adams has also complained that homes are taxed based on the newest assessed value, not the price at which they were purchased. Again, Perez has been able to site state law that requires taxation based on assessed value.

It’s gone on and on like that. Adams has run a heartfelt, honest campaign, but his concerns might be better addressed by the legislature than the assessor. Perez, when speaking in public, has competently addressed Adams’ concerns and spoken with intelligence about the operations and function of the assessor’s office.

This one shouldn’t keep us up late on election night.