Here’s my analysis of the races for the four House seats whose districts are partially or all in
House District 53
In this race, Democrat Nate Cote is trying to knock off 12-year incumbent Republican Terry Marquardt, the House minority whip.
That might seem like an unlikely task, but redistricting several years ago shifted this district’s center from
It’s still conservative, and this district may eventually become a stronghold for a Republican from
The latest Democratic Party poll had Marquardt up only one point, and in recent weeks he has finally caught on that he has a serious challenger and begun a stronger push for re-election. The Republican Party has helped out in recent days with a radio ad in which U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici endorses Marquardt.
On the flip side, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and Gov. Bill Richardson are sending a lot of money
Marquardt, for the most part, has responded by defending his record and not going negative.
The
House District 37
With the retirement of Republican Rep. Ed Boykin, Democrat Jeff Steinborn and Republican Scott Witt are vying for this seat.
Though a recent Democratic Party poll had Steinborn ahead eight points, most view this as another race that’s hard to predict. Steinborn, who ran unsuccessfully two years ago for congress, has quite a campaign machine behind him, and his get-out-the-vote effort has been impressive. Witt has also worked tirelessly to ask for the votes of people living in this district.
Steinborn’s campaigning skills are so impressive that, were he a moderate consensus-builder, he might have a commanding lead in this race. But that’s not the case. Steinborn is a Democrat’s Democrat, a partisan politician.
Perhaps because of that, Steinborn has tried to paint Witt as a right-wing extremist. Witt has worked to convince voters he isn’t. This race may come down to whether voters see Witt as someone who will consider all views and think independently.
If they don’t, Steinborn will likely win. If they do, this race could keep us up late on election night.
House District 36
Republican Isaac Chavez is challenging Democrat Andy Nuñez, who has held the position since 2001.
In many ways, this race is much like the House District 53 situation. A well-funded, competent challenger is running an ambitious campaign against a representative who was caught off guard.
A recent Democratic Party poll had Nuñez up 17 points, but a Republican poll has the candidates even.
Chavez has a vastly larger number of small contributions from residents of the district, has knocked on more doors and is asking more people for their votes. He’s from
But Nuñez, a retired educator, can rely on teachers to do much of the walking of his district that he hasn’t done himself.
And in many ways, this race isn’t about who talks to more people. It’s a battle between the oil and gas industry and farmers and ranchers.
Nuñez has sponsored a bill in the past two sessions – and said he will sponsor it again in January – that would make oil and gas operators liable to surface owners for damages sustained as a result of their operations. It also requires operators to reclaim all surface directly affected by their operations, and to provide notice to surface owners of their plans on their property before they begin work.
Oil and gas has made defeating Nuñez its primary focus in this election, and has given lots of money to his opponent. Chavez was also boosted by a $20,000 gift from the main financial backer of the 2004 Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, who gave to Chavez probably because of the push by oil and gas.
On the flip side, farmers, ranchers, and their political action committees have given big to Nuñez.
Legislators are watching this race closely. Whichever side wins will have kudos and lobbying power in the next session.
Expect this to be a much closer race than the Democratic Party poll indicates.
House District 35
In this race, Republican Lawrence Joy is challenging Democratic incumbent Antonio Lujan.
Even Joy doesn’t think he’ll win this year, and he’s probably right. With the possible exception of Chavez’s heavily funded campaign, this isn’t a year for Republicans to make many gains in
Joy says he’s trying to slowly gain ground toward a victory in two years or sometime after that. We’ll see.