House hopeful has long-term plan for victory

Lawrence Joy is fairly certain he won’t win the House seat he’s seeking this year.

The Republican ran against Rep. Antonio Lujan, D-Las Cruces, in 2004, but lost with 38 percent of the vote to Lujan’s 62 percent.

He’s running again, and this time Joy has a different take on how to knock off an incumbent in a district where party registration heavily favors the incumbent. He’s talking openly about how he is going to lose the race this year.

“I’m trying to become the underdog,” Joy said.

This isn’t the year for Republicans to win against strong Democratic incumbents, Joy said. Gov. Bill Richardson’s machine makes that almost impossible. And Joy’s own party didn’t want him to run an active campaign, he said, because lower voter turnout in the heavily Democratic, inner-Las Cruces District 35 would help the GOP’s statewide candidates’ chances.

Joy, a member of the Republican Party’s state central committee and the county executive board, said his party’s state leaders believe Democratic voters won’t show up at the polls this year, but he believes the party is underestimating Richardson’s ability to motivate. Joy said if that Republican strategy of relying on low voter turnout holds true, he might have a chance of winning this year – but he thinks the GOP leaders are wrong.

He thinks Richardson will secure a high Democratic Party turnout.

“The Democrats are popular in New Mexico. Everyone’s convinced all is fine, despite all the crap,” Joy said, referring to recent scandals. “There’s plenty of mess, but people don’t seem to care.”

Joy wants to change that. He hadn’t been campaigning heavily or raising hardly any money until several days ago, when his signs finally went up. Now that he’s become more active, Joy is targeting only a specific group of people in his district – Democrats who have voted in the past several elections. He wants to convince them that they should consider individual candidates, rather than voting straight party ticket.

Joy, the owner of a marketing firm, has analyzed the numbers and talked to many Democrats in his district who won’t consider his candidacy because he’s a Republican.

Joy has the addresses of those Democrats he wants to talk with. Between now and Nov. 7, those are the homes he’ll visit.

“I’m after the historic, traditional Democratic voter. I just want them to make some choices,” Joy said. “If they’ll take a look, they’ve got a viable choice.”

He’s aiming for a small gain this year that he can use as a springboard to victory next time.

“If I can gain five points from what I’m doing this year, that would be huge,” Joy said. “Then I’m exactly where I need to be in two years.”

Lujan didn’t return a call seeking comment.