Democrats set sights on Marquardt’s House seat

Democrats believe they have a chance oust one of the Republican House leaders on Nov. 7. Some Republicans I spoke with also believe it’s possible.

That’s why the House District 53 race between Republican incumbent Terry Marquardt and Democratic challenger Nate Cote has become one of the hottest in the state.

Sources tell me a recent poll done by the Democrats has Marquardt, the House minority whip, ahead 46-42 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Cote would not confirm that.

“I can’t release the poll numbers, but I can tell you it’s close,” he said. “It’s a hot race right now.”

Democrats, including Gov. Bill Richardson, Speaker of the House Ben Lujan and State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, have pumped just over $10,000 into Cote’s campaign since August 1.

Sources tell me Cote will get more help from Democrats in the next four weeks. The party had been spreading resources among three contested House races in Doña Ana County, but the sources say new polls show Rep. Andy Nuñez ahead of Republican challenger Isaac Chavez in the District 36 race and Democrat Jeff Steinborn ahead of Republican Scott Witt in the District 37 race.

The party will work to keep those leads, but more resources will go to Cote’s campaign, I’m told.

“I’m doing very well for a first-time House candidate,” Cote said. “… I feel very good about it. I feel that Terry Marquardt is a bit concerned.”

But the Navy veteran and Doña Ana County resident is trying to knock off a politician who has been a state representative since 1994 and got 57.8 percent of the vote in 2004, when he was challenged by Democrat Roger Flemming. Though he hasn’t done any polling, Marquardt said he isn’t worried.

He said Cote is more active and raising more money than Flemming did, but said he has always secured about 60 percent of the vote.

“I don’t see Mr. Cote making that kind of gain,” Marquardt said. “He probably will do better (than past opponents), but I don’t think 10 percent better.”

Including in-kind contributions, Cote raised about $16,500 during the last reporting period – some $3,700 more than Marquardt – but Marquardt started out with $25,000 more in the bank.

He’s spent a lot more, and has more than Cote left to spend. Marquardt spent $2,600 on billboards and $4,000 on television commercials in the last reporting cycle, in addition to money on mailers. Cote has focused almost all his money on mailers.

The district includes eight precincts in Doña Ana County and two in Otero County, where Marquardt lives. You can view a map of the district by clicking here.

The district is so spread out that it encompasses two television and radio markets. In addition, residents of several precincts read the Las Cruces Sun-News, but residents of two precincts read primarily the Alamogordo Daily News and residents of one precinct read primarily the El Paso Times.

That makes it difficult to be effective by advertising through the media, Cote said.

Marquardt has been advertising in the Sun-News, and has already sent out three mailings. Cote’s third goes out this week, and he said he plans several more before Election Day.

Both are knocking on doors, but Cote, his volunteers, and his campaign signs have been more visible in precincts in Las Cruces.

While Marquardt is running for re-election, he’s showing his confidence by also lobbying to replace the outgoing Ted Hobbs as House minority leader. I wrote about this in May.

Rep. Brian Moore of Clayton is also being pushed by some Republicans for the leadership position, and Rep. Dan Foley of Roswell is pushing for the whip position currently held by Marquardt.

Marquardt’s campaign finance report reflects this battle. He gave more than $8,000 in the last reporting period to Republicans, most of them House candidates.

“I’m a leader,” Marquardt said. “Part of my responsibility is to help my troops.”