Today I’m going to do something a little different.
Rather than telling you what’s happening in New Mexico politics, I’m going to entertain a conspiracy theory a longtime politico shared with me. I don’t know whether it’s true, but I find it so intriguing that I have to pass it on.
Let’s say you’re the Republican Party chair in a growing county that has been controlled by Democrats since the dawn of time – like, perhaps, Doña Ana County. Let’s say you’re fed up with the same old game. You run candidates in all the races but never gain ground.
You look at the numbers and realize you aren’t going to win those south-valley House races. There’s just no way in the current climate.
But the real problem is that darned county elections bureau and county government that has been corrupt for a long time, you believe. You want to get rid of that manager and those good-ol’-boy commissioners. And that old clerk – someone needs to tell her it’s time to retire.
So you start examining the county commission races that are up for grabs. Democrat Oscar Vasquez Butler is beatable. He barely won the seat last time and, though he has made a lot of friends, he’s also made many enemies. Republican Paul Curry isn’t running again, which is fine with you. His votes have often upset the county Republican Party. His district is one another Republican can win.
Especially if you concede the corresponding House races.
Here’s how it works: Butler’s district includes the liberal Mesilla area, but also the conservative Picacho Hills area. You give Democrat Joni Gutierrez of Mesilla a free pass in her House race. You’re not going to beat her anyway. By doing that, you give the liberals in the overlapping commission district one less reason to show up to vote.
You can do a better job of getting out the vote. Your party has spent years creating a well-oiled grassroots effort across the nation and knows how to do it better than Democrats.
Regardless, lower voter turnout traditionally helps Republicans because a higher percentage of them are well-educated and registered to vote, so they’re more likely to do so even when there are few exciting, contested state or national races.
Then you find a good Republican – John Zimmerman – to run against Butler.
You find another good Republican to run for Curry’s seat. In the end, two sign up – Ruben Gonzalez and Mack W. Haley. Giving Gutierrez a free pass also helps whichever of them wins the primary. That commission district includes the conservative East Mesa of Las Cruces, but also wraps around New Mexico State University into part of Gutierrez’s district – the liberal Mesilla Park area. Without Gutierrez giving those liberal voters a reason to show up, the Republican in that commission race has the advantage.
You also decide to not run anyone against Democrat Joseph Cervantes, whose House district overlaps the Curry commission district. This will mean lower voter turnout, which will help the Republican candidate. Cervantes can’t be beaten anyway. You (Goddard) tried to do it yourself two years ago, and failed. Cervantes has since become chair of the House Judiciary Committee and capable of fundraising that would far exceed that of any opponent.
And as fate would have it, the release of the special audit of county government that exposes corruption was delayed until the election year.
Ammunition.
Imagine. If you could win both seats, you’d have a 3-2 majority on the commission, in addition to a Republican treasurer who is quite involved in party politics and a sheriff who, though he’s not all that political, is at least a Republican.
That’s the majority of elected county officials.
That would give you quite a base from which to plan your next moves and expand your power in Doña Ana County and Southern New Mexico.
So there’s the conspiracy theory. Don’t think it’s plausible? My initial inclination was doubt, but as I toyed with the idea in my head, I began to think it’s either crazy or genius. Goddard told me he didn’t run against Cervantes this time because he wanted to focus on organizing the party and dealing with problems in county government – especially the elections bureau. He said that while he was explaining that many qualified Republicans won’t run for office because they believe those who run the elections bureau are incompetent or dirty, hurting Republicans’ chances of being elected.
That, of course, was part of Goddard’s explanation for why so many Democrats are running unopposed this year.
And Goddard has been pushing for further action to be taken regarding the special audit, even taking some nasty shots in public at commissioners. Goddard is suspicious of the state auditor saying that most of the identified problems (and there were many) appear to have been fixed.
Goddard made a public records request to the county Tuesday that focuses on three issues: the $1,200 overpayment by the county to the Doña Ana Mutual Domestic Water Association (whose president is Butler, target number one), County Manager Brian Haines’ role in the auditing findings (target number two), and the purchase of the land where the new county administrative complex is being built (a politically hot potato).
These are all issues the state auditor reviewed in depth. His office found cause to cite them as audit findings, but not to refer them to prosecutors for further investigation.
So that’s the conspiracy theory. Is this all the misguided brainchild of a longtime politico who has too much time on his hands, or is it a potentially brilliant plan?
I don’t know, but it sure is interesting to think about.
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By the way, Goddard made the records request during Tuesday’s commission meeting. There weren’t fireworks, but emotions were high and allegations flew over the county attorney’s assertion that Treasurer Jim Schoonover committed a felony in purchasing, with taxpayer money, pencils that are similar to his campaign materials.
The attorney says he has a duty to report Schoonover to law enforcement. You can read the Sun-News’ article by clicking here.
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I’ll be on the Michael Swickard show tomorrow morning at 8 a.m. to talk politics. Those of you in Southern New Mexico can listen in on KSNM-AM 570.
Of course, I’ll be back with another blog posting tomorrow as well. Come back then, and thanks for reading today!