Clinton leads Trump by 5 points in New Mexico, Journal poll finds


Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a 5-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in New Mexico, and support for Libertarian Gary Johnson has dropped significantly, according to a new poll.

Hillary Clinton

Gage Skidmore / Creative Commons

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (photo cc info)

Clinton led Trump 45 percent to 40 percent in the survey, which was conducted Nov. 1-3 for the Albuquerque Journal by Research & Polling Inc. Johnson had the support of 11 percent of those surveyed. That’s down from 24 percent in the Journal’s last poll in late September.

Two percent in the new poll said they support Green candidate Jill Stein, and another 2 percent were undecided. The survey of 504 registered voters — who had already cast ballots or said they planned to vote — has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, so Clinton’s lead is just outside the margin.

Other recent polling has found the race tightening nationwide and in New Mexico. Trump recently claimed internal campaign polling had the race tied in this state, and his campaign has directed significant resources to the Land of Enchantment in the past week.

But heading into Election Day, Clinton is holding onto her lead in New Mexico — even if only narrowly — and most voters have made up their minds, the Journal poll found.

“New Mexico has been solidly blue in the past two elections, and it appears Clinton is maintaining her lead here this election cycle, unlike in some battleground states, such as Ohio or Nevada, where she is either trailing or in a dead heat,” the Journal quoted Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling, as saying.

Donald Trump

Gage Skidmore / Creative Commons

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump (photo cc info)

Another survey, released Friday by ZiaPoll, had Clinton leading Trump by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent, and Johnson at 7 percent. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points and was weighted to take into consideration “higher enthusiasm among the Republican base” shown in polls during this election cycle, the polling memo states.

In the Journal poll, Clinton’s strongest support came from women, Hispanics, and “those with the highest education levels,” the newspaper’s article about the poll states. Trump’s strongest backers were men, Anglos, and “those with a high school diploma or less education.”

“Among those with graduate degrees, Clinton has a 27-point lead over Trump,” the article states. “But among those with a high school diploma or less, Trump held a seven-point lead among likely New Mexico voters.”

The poll also asked voters about the secretary of state’s race, and found Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver leading Republican Nora Espinoza 53 percent to 40 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

And in the race for a seat on the N.M. Supreme Court, the poll found a tie between Republican Judith Nakamura and Democrat Michael Vigil. Each had the support of 45 percent of those surveyed, and 10 percent were undecided.


“This is an exciting race,” the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying. “It is very rare for a Republican to win election to the Supreme Court in New Mexico.”

Gov. Susana Martinez appointed Nakamura to the Supreme Court last year. Vigil, the chief judge on the N.M. Court of Appeals, is trying to unseat her.

A little more about the poll’s methodology: Fifty percent of those surveyed by Research & Polling were reached on cell phones. “All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone,” the Journal article states. “…Most voters surveyed cast ballots in either the 2012 or 2014 general elections; a small portion of newly registered voters were also included in the sample.”

Comments are closed.