Susana Martinez
The Albuquerque Journal’s final polls of the 2010 election cycle show races shifting even further toward Republicans in the final days.
Republican Susana Martinez led by 10 in the Journal poll of the governor’s race. Democrat Gary King led by 10 in the attorney general’s race, but that means his lead has been cut in half in the last month.
And in the 1st and 2nd congressional district races, Republicans Jon Barela and Steve Pearce each led by 3 points in the Journal polls.
Here are the details of each poll:
Martinez by 10
Martinez led Democrat Diane Denish 52 percent to 42 percent, the Journal reported. That left 6 percent of voters undecided. One fourth of Democrats surveyed said they support Martinez.
Martinez led by 6 points in the Journal’s September poll of the race.
The new survey of 1,003 likely voters was conducted Wednesday and Thursday and had a margin of error of plus or minutes 3 percentage points.
Adding leaners into the new poll had Martinez leading 53 percent to 43 percent.
Like Democrats, Hispanic voters were split, but still breaking Denish’s way: 56 percent said they support Denish and 37 percent said they support Martinez.
Gary King
King leads by 10
King led Republican Matt Chandler 51 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided, the Journal reported. That means Chandler’s hard-hitting attack ads – and his positive ads that were aimed to increase his name recognition – have had an effect on the race.
“Because of the impact that advertising can have on a race, where you have a lesser-known candidate criticizing a well-known candidate, that lesser-known candidate is often able to close the gap quickly,” Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff was quoted by the newspaper as saying.
“In my opinion, it will continue to narrow,” Sanderoff said.
The poll’s sample size and margin of error were identical to the poll of the governor’s race.
Jon Barela
Barela leads by 3
Barela led Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 49 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided, the Journal reported.
The survey of 400 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
That’s a 10-point shift from a month ago, when the last Journal poll had Heinrich leading by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent. Independents have shifted their support from Heinrich to Barela, the Journal reported.
Heinrich led among Hispanics 60 percent to 34 percent.
Steve Pearce
Pearce leads by 3
Pearce led Democratic incumbent Harry Teague 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided, the Journal reported.
The survey of 402 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
One interesting point: Pearce led among women by 13 points. From the Journal:
“Sanderoff said Pearce’s hard-hitting ads might be a factor in siphoning female support from Teague. One of the ads criticized Teague’s decision to notify employees at his private business four days before Christmas 2009 that their health insurance would be canceled.”
There were some bright spots for Teague. He led among Hispanics by 40 points and he led among those who said they were “very likely” to vote 48 percent to 43 percent.
But among those who said they had already voted, Pearce led 60 percent to 36 percent.