Susana Martinez
One analyst says the race is down to Martinez and Weh; another calls Domenici a ‘wild card’ because of his lead in polls
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez gained in stature at today’s Republican Party preprimary nominating convention. Allen Weh did what he needed to do. And Pete Domenici Jr. is down but not necessarily out.
That’s how Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff analyzed the results following today’s vote.
Martinez won the support of 46.65 percent of delegates at the Republican convention. Weh finished second with 26.32 percent, followed by Janice Arnold-Jones at 13.16 percent and Doug Turner at 9.23 percent. Domenici finished last, with 4.61 percent of the vote.
“The big surprise here is the margin of Susana Martinez’s victory,” Sanderoff said. “The second thing that stands out, besides her superb performance, is Pete Domenici’s weak performance.”
If they want to stay on the ballot, candidates who don’t pass the organizational test of winning the support of 20 percent of convention delegates are required by law to collect twice as many signatures as those who do win 20 percent. No candidate who failed to win 20 percent at the convention has ever come back to win the primary.
Regardless, Arnold-Jones, Turner and Domenici all say they plan to stay in the race, which will require about 1,200 more signatures from each.
Staying in the race may make more sense for Domenici than the other two, Sanderoff said. In one recent poll, Domenici led the other candidates with 29.3 percent of the vote, while Martinez came in a distant second at 11.5 percent. Another poll tested each of the GOP gubernatorial hopefuls against the Democrats’ candidate, Diane Denish, and found that only Domenici is anywhere near Denish in terms of support.
“If ever there were a time that someone with 4 percent of the delegates could reasonably consider staying in the race, it would be now, but the Republican delegates have sent a very clear message that he is not their candidate,” Sanderoff said.
Garcia calls it a two-person race between Martinez and Weh
Political analyst Jose Garcia, whose NMSU government class conducted the poll that showed Domenici ahead of the other GOP candidates, disagreed. He said this is now a two-person race between Martinez and Weh.
“I think people are going to be listening very carefully to Susana’s message, and I think they’re going to be comparing it very carefully to Weh’s message,” Garcia said. “Those two candidates have the ear of people.”
Asked if there was any scenario in which one of the other three could win the primary, Garcia said “anything is possible in politics,” but he doesn’t see Domenici, Arnold-Jones or Turner winning.
“If it’s a resounding victory for Susana to get nearly 50 percent, it was also a resounding defeat for Domenici,” Garcia said.
Martinez said in an interview that communication and meetings with small groups were the keys to winning the preprimary, and she plans to continue utilizing both.
“This says that we have to keep working hard, and that the folks who were at the convention are very much wanting to unite,” Martinez said. “We’ll continue to work as though we’re going to be the ones coming out of the primary and heading into the general.”
In a statement released by her campaign, Martinez also said convention delegates share her “values of reform and accountability.”
“Together, we can bring real change to New Mexico after eight years of the failed Richardson/Denish Administration,” the statement read.
The target remains on Domenici’s back
Sanderoff said Republicans who are supporting Martinez like her conservative credentials and believe she is the most electable in November. But he said Domenici will remain the one with a target on his back as long as he’s leading in the polls.
That is already apparent. In a prepared statement following today’s vote, Weh mentioned Domenici but not Martinez.
“With three candidates failing to make the cut, including Pete Domenici Jr., we are pleased to be on the ballot and moving toward Election Day,” Weh said. “This campaign is the people’s campaign, and we can’t wait to get out of the convention hall and get back on the road.”
And the Democratic Party of New Mexico, in a prepared statement, hammered Domenici, the “self-described GOP frontrunner,” for finishing last.
“Following today’s last place finish, the question isn’t whether Pete Domenici Jr. is still the GOP frontrunner – the question is whether he’ll even remain in the race,” said James Hallinan, Democratic Party spokesman. “This vote was a humbling reality check for Pete Domenici Jr. and a clear signal that New Mexico Republicans are now more fractured than ever.”
Nothing more than an ‘informal straw vote’
Domenici Campaign Director Doug Antoon played down the results of the convention vote, calling it an “informal straw vote” and writing in an e-mail that Domenici passed the $300,000 mark in fundraising this week – his seventh in the race.
“For the Domenici campaign, the election is really just beginning,” Antoon said. “We strongly suggest the Democrats take no solace from an informal straw vote. All scientific polls to date show Domenici virtually even with the Democrat nominee.”
Sanderoff said if the primary election were held today, Domenici would probably win, but “that would be solely due to his family’s name.” Domenici’s father is former U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici.
Because the younger Domenici’s support in polls is largely due to his father’s name recognition, it might not be solid, Sanderoff said.
“He might have the highest but not the widest support,” Sanderoff said.
A news release from Arnold-Jones’ campaign characterized her 13.16 percent as “a strong third place showing,” and Arnold-Jones said she already has more than enough signatures to stay in the race.
“It was a more solid third than I expected. I am delighted,” she said. “Every place I turn, we’re making progress. People are listening to the message. They just may not have been the delegates.”
“I have a message. That’s why I’m running, and I’m going to keep running,” Arnold-Jones said.
Turner said he also has already gathered the necessary signatures to stay in the race.
“As an outsider, the expectation is that you’re not going to have the support from all insiders,” Turner said. “You would like to have support of people in your own party and support of the party machine, but I’m not sure this convention is representative of New Mexico voters or New Mexico Republicans.”
“I’m feeling pretty good,” he added.
Martinez gets ‘instant credibility’
The fact that Martinez won the convention, Sanderoff said, “demonstrates that she’s well organized. You don’t get half the delegates at the convention unless you work it.”
That doesn’t always translate into a primary victory. Former Gov. Gary Johnson finished third in the GOP preprimary in 1994, and he went on to win in June and November.
But in many cases, a preprimary victory sparked momentum that carried a candidate to a primary win. Sanderoff and Garcia said Martinez will now have an easier time raising money, which will help her spread her message.
“This will give her the opportunity to at least promote her victory and gain some instant credibility,” Sanderoff said.
While he’s already counting out Domenici, Arnold-Jones and Turner, Garcia said it’s impossible at this point to predict whether Weh or Martinez will win.
“I don’t think this is over by any stretch of the imagination,” he said.
Sanderoff said it’s too early to call it a two-person race.
“Susana impressed today. Allen Weh did what he had to do. And Pete Jr. will be the wild card,” he said.